Quote of the Week: Steve Jobs

>> Friday, March 12, 2010

For this week's quote I am including a link to Steve Jobs' 2005 Stanford Commencement Address.  It's a fairly well known speech, but if you haven't read it you are in luck.  While I first read this many years ago, his story becomes even more impressive in 2010 when you look at the tremendous success of Apple recently.  Sure, some of it might sound a little like a fairy tale and its easy to look back at things positively when you have reached such a pinnacle, but the message is clear.  The quote is at the end.

2005 Commencement Address

For an excellent book on Steve Jobs read The Second Coming of Steve Jobs by Alan Deutschman.  The story is dated, but it compliments this speech nicely.

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Voters Were Naive About Obama

>> Thursday, March 11, 2010

More than one year after Obama took office some of die hard supporters are feeling disappointed that he hasn't brought the change he promised.  Washington is business as usual and some might argue even worse than usual.  Unemployment is still high, the economy is weak and his one year focus on health care is dragging on.  The focus of a recent CNN report I watched was on younger Obama voters - the ones who rallied for him online, supported his grassroots campaign and were an important base.




How much change were they expecting from him?  Did they expect him to go to Washington and magically change government over night or even in one year?  Is it even reasonable to expect that one man would even be able to accomplish all he promised.  Obama over-promised in his campaign.  It's best to remember the saying "over promise, under deliver" - it just of course does not usually apply to Politics.

If you think about it for a minute, what leadership and governmental accomplishments could Obama actually point to?  He never actually ran/governed anything on his own.  While his work as a community advocate is great, and he was a State Senator and U.S. Senator, what indication was there he would be able to ship Washington into shape?  While Rudy Giuliani has a long list of faults, he accomplished a great deal with NYC, and Mitt Romney ran private businesses, turned around the Salt Lake City Olympics and was Governor of Massachusetts.  Now as I've written about before in a past post, past success does not always guarantee future potential, but it is an indicator.  Obama was a great campaigner, and an inspirational speaker.  Leadership and inspirational skills are incredibly important for a President, however, voters should not confuse the ability to give a speech with running a government.

None of the above points are new - they were available during the campaign and election.  However, how many people considered them?

Finally, times are tough, but what have some of the people who are complaining done to make a difference?  Perhaps its pointless, maybe not, but for example, have they ever written their congressman or volunteered to help a civic activity?  Also, I wonder if the economy were better, how much happier would these people be with Obama?

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How Starbucks Saved My Life (Book Review)

>> Wednesday, March 10, 2010

How Starbucks Saved My Life: A Son of Privilege Learns to Live Like Everyone Else
How Starbucks Saved My Life: A Son of Privilege Learns to Live Like Everyone Elseby Michael Gates Gill


The title does a good job of briefly summing up the book.  Michael Gill was born into an upscale family, grew up in a mansion, attended Yale and mentioned meeting such famous people as Hemingway, Muhammed Ali, and Frank Sinatra.  He was given his first job at the ad agency J Walter Thomson (JWT) where he rose to the very successful position of Creative Director.  Along the way he made some mistakes.  He devoted most of his energy to JWT and was too quick to jump at any assignment they given, no matter the consequences.  After 25 years he was fired by his mentee.  His consulting firm went nowhere, his life became complicated by family and health matters and he was in a pretty sorry state until an accidental encounter led him to accept a job at Starbucks.  His time and experiences at Starbucks dramatically changed his life for the better.


This book has many themes including, status, social-economic class, family, confidence, regret and redemption.  It was hard for someone of "privilege" to find himself work at Starbucks and his and his peers reactions are very interesting.  Additionally, he was exposed to a more diverse set of people than he was used to and he was far better off for it.  One great line from the book regarding one scene is "my former entitled and arrogant self would have been appalled."


I thought the book was great, it was very well written, a quick read (200+ pages) and carries with it many important life lessons.  While it felt over the top at some points or too sweat it was not a serious drawback.


A few main points I took away:

-It seemed to me he was far happier at Starbucks than he ever was in his former high powered career.  Part of this is greater appreciation for what he had as he had it easy before in many ways, and part of this because based on the book Starbucks treats its employees well, as opposed to many ad agencies.
-Take pride in your work no matter what you do.  He took more pride in cleaning the bathroom than many people do in much more glamorous tasks and it showed.  (this has an impact on customer service - see my post on that topic)
-Treat people well in work and in life, there's really no excuse not to.  As you'll read with him, guilt can come back to haunt you.
-Find a balance in life - while he was very successful at work, he neglected his family and that regret caught up to him.  As he writes early discussing his time with his children "You only have one life; take it from me, live it wisely.  Weight your priorities."
-Focus less on the past, more on the future.
-Finally, things don't always go as you plan, nor can you plan your life.  The irony of this story in many ways is the guy went from (in his opinion) a very high status job to nothing only to become happier, plus write an extremely successful book which will be turned into a movie starting Tom Hanks.  So, you never know what one door will lead to in life.

Below is a CNN video about the author and the book (click here for link)







Readers of this book might also be interested in Howard Schulz's Pour Your Heart Into It: How Starbucks Built a Company One Cup at a Time which offers context about the type of workplace he tried to create.  For more book reviews visit Apellicon's Book Recommendation website.

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Cultural Observations: Language Skills

>> Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Below is an explanation I received about how Americans and Europeans represent their language skills, as well as two examples.  This is not based on an exact study nor of course representative of everyone.

When you ask a American how he is with a second language, he will say something such "I speak French" or "I'm very good".  When you ask a European how his English is he will respond "it's ok."  Now, when it comes time to speak, the American is often not as good as French as he claimed to be, while the European who says his English is "ok" will sound pretty fluent.

When I was shopping in a store in Vienna the salesman asked me if I needed help in German, I responded asking if he spoke English.  He said "yes, a little."  I then proceeded to ask him a series of questions, and receive answers in fluent English.  At one point he couldn't recall the exact word, but it took me a few seconds to think of it as well.

Before going to France with a German friend, I asked him how his French was - he said, he took it in school for a few years and was pretty good.  As I knew no French, I'd be happy with whatever he knew.  When we went to a car rental agency, he rented the car in French in a conversation which lasted a few minutes.  Now, I of course couldn't understand anything, however, they must have understood him as he was rented the car, and he must have understood them pretty well as he even walked away with some directions.

After inquiring further about the difference, here is what one European told me :

"Well, in general Americans tend to talk things up and Europeans talk things down, one is boasting a bit, the other shows fake modesty.  It is somewhat a result of education, i.e. in school here [Europe] they often rather tell you what you can't do, but they don't mention what you did ok, it is taken for granted.  In America they tell you - you can do great and do anything you want, they boost you from the start. and this seems to carry on in life."

Please leave a comment if you have any more insight.  Thank you.

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Dr. Oz's Growing Media Empire

>> Monday, March 8, 2010

Oprah is set to end her program in 2011 opening up the field for the queen or king of daytime.  Many say Ellen will assume the thrown while others point to Dr. Oz.  Just the fact that a medically oriented TV program is even being considered for the crown is indicative of how times have changed.  (I exclude Dr. Phil because he does not deal with most medical issues)  I couldn't imagine a few years ago a broad health program even being so successful.

The Dr. Oz brand is growing and has even more potential.  He follows in the footsteps of some powerful personality driven brands including Oprah, Martha Stewart, Rachael Ray and Bill O'Reilly.  So what is his empire comprised of and what potential does it have?  By the way, he received both an MD and MBA from the University of Pennsylvania/Wharton - so we know he doesn't only have medicine on his mind.

1.  Books
Dr. Oz  has published a series of very successful health books, mostly under the series title "YOU:," including "YOU: On a Diet," "YOU: the Owner's Manual" and "YOU: Staying Young."  I read the "You the Owner's Manual" book and was pretty impressed - the writing was accessible, he offered some valuable insight and I thought his approach was logical.  He often looks for certain changes which will improve your life by a reasonable measure.  For example, by eating x less often, you will probably live x more years on average.  As we know from media moguls, books are an important component of an empire.

2.  The Dr. Oz Show
Dr. Oz was a frequent guest on Oprah's program at which point he was granted his own TV show.  His show premiered in 2009 with the best launch of a new syndicated program since Dr. Phil.  In fact in NYC the show does so well the original episode which airs at 3pm is repeated the next morning at 11am.  While I'm not a fan of daytime TV in general, his program is actually surprisingly good.  He takes a difficult subject to translate to TV (health, medicine, etc.) and manages to provide valuable information on a daily basis.  There is no doubt Americans love TV, so having a TV oriented health program which is good and better yet helpful is a powerful opportunity. 

Dr. Oz has a website of course.  It's ok, nothing special but it does have potential.  I read that Dr. Oz is further developing his website and that he plans to be more competitive with WebMD.  The comparison between a generic name (WebMD) and a personality driven health site (Dr. Oz) is an interesting fact to consider.  People tend to trust their Doctor, so having an actual doctor's name involved has its benefits.

Set to launch soon, Sharecare is the "first truly interactive healthcare ecosystem giving consumers the ability to ask, learn and act on the questions of health."  Dr. Oz has partnered with Discovery Communications and Oprah's company among others on this venture.  Sharecare's goal is to simplify "the search for health and wellness online, offering a breadth of answers and point of view from renowned physicians and hospitals, to local caregivers and healthcare consumers."  All of that sounds good, we'll have to wait until it launches to see if it's good.

It's only a matter of time until there is a Dr. Oz iPhone app, and a Dr. Oz Health Magazine - who knows maybe for the iPad.  There is more potential there including providing Dr. Oz content to schools, and creating some more partnerships where health content could be featured where it is absent.  A large opportunity exists for him to sell either his own brand of products or partner with an existing company.  There are downsides as his credibility could be challenged and any problems with the products would be disastrous.  Expect to see more growth in the Dr. Oz empire soon...

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Vietnam - Investing (VNM)

>> Sunday, March 7, 2010

Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm wrote a bullish article about Vietnam (The Rise of Vietnam) in Foreign Policy last week.  Having previously read Bremmer's book The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall as well as some other articles I have been pretty impressed by his insights into global affairs and business.

I have been keeping an eye on Vietnam for many month's, ever since Van Eck launched the Market Vector's Vietnam ETF in August 2009.  Market Vectors does a good job of introducing targeted ETFs for investors seeking a very focused international exposure.  Typically these ETFs are unique, such as with their Russia ETF (RSX), Brazil Small Cap ETF (BRF) and Poland ETF (PLND).  Given the risks of investing in emerging and frontier markets I held off on investing in the Vietnam ETF until I could learn more and get a better idea of how it trades (not surprisingly, it's volatile).  VNM has risen from 26 to 32 in a short time, only to fall below 24 (chart).

Vietnam
Vietnam has a population of 88.6 million, a median age of 27.4 and the GDP per capita (PPP) is $2,900 for 2009 (China's is $6,500).  2010 GDP growth is 6%.  56% of the labor force works in agriculture, however, "agriculture's share of economic output has continued to shrink from about 25% in 2000 to about 21% in 2009."  The government is communist (more like Chinese Communism though).  (Source: CIA World Factbook)

Vietnam ETF (as of Jan 31, 2010):
Ticker:  VNM
Net Expense:  0.99% (with waiver)
AUM:  $113 million
Holdings:  31
P/E:  21.79   P/B: 2.47
Sector Breakdown:  Financials (45%), Energy (23.6%) and Industrials (16.7%).
Market Cap:  Large ($6B+) 12.8%, Medium ($1.5 to 6B) 41.2% and Small (<$1.5B) 46%
Data: Market Vectors Website

VNM is obviously risky and very focused - it offers single country exposure, with nearly half of its investments in small cap firms and a concentration in Financials and Energy (69%).  It has a similar P/E vs. Emerging Markets (EEM's P/E = 21.74 as of 2/26/2010).  VNM has underperformed EEM in the last year and 6 months, but is ahead in the last 3 months.

Below are a few points about Vietnam which have struck me:
1.  Intel Investment
In 2006 Intel announced a $300 million investment in Vietnam - "the largest American investment in Vietnam ever by a non-oil company (BizWeek). The reasons many international companies select Vietnam include its low cost skilled labor and diversification beyond China. 

2.  Demographics
Anywhere from 50 to 65% of the country is under the Age of 30 - a favorable long term demographic trend as opposed to many other countries (ie Japan) which have/will have a huge percent of older people. Given the large number of young people in Vietnam, they do not remember the Vietnam war (75% born after the war).  In fact, America is surprisingly popular in Vietnam (8/10 Vietnamese have a positive view of America according to the video:


3. Growth
Among the Economist's list of 12 highest GDP growth countries, only three can be easily invested with using ETFs.  #2 China (8.6% GDP growth), #9 India (6.3%), and #12 Vietnam (6.0%).  The others include such countries Congo, Uzbekistan and Madagascar... The workforce is young, they work hard, value education and are entrepreneurial. You can see some good examples in the video below:


4.  Risks
There are plenty of risks including stability, infrastructure, corruption and inflation.  For example, in November 2009, Vietnam devalued its currency by 5% (article) and in February 2010 they devalued it again by 3.4% (article).

5. Ian Bremmer Article

The title is obviously positive "The Rise of Vietnam" and so are many of the points he makes.
-For Vietnam "the new buzzword is stability"
-They are "seeing a spike in interest (particularly from Japan, South Korea and the multilateral institutions) in Vietnam's export infrastructure."
-"Japanese and Korean investors, in particular, are looking toward Vietnam to hedge their bets on China. Given the uncertainty surrounding Thailand's industrial policy (exemplified most dramatically by the ongoing controversy over work at Map Ta Phut, the country's most important petrochemical hub), and the political volatility that's likely to follow the death of Thailand's king, Vietnam has never looked sunnier."

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Overexposed Obama Brand?

When Bush was President I hardly ever saw him on TV giving a speech or holding a press conference, he was one of the most uncommunicative President's ever.  Fast forward one year later and Obama is everywhere.  However, in my opinion he is overexposed.  Obama and the President are a brand, and as with any brand which has a message to distribute the message must be controlled.

When you are overexposed to a brand, the message loses its impact at some point.  Think of many TV commercials you see - after a while if you see the same commercial saying the same thing over and over, you will become tired of it.  At some point, if there is too much overexposure your opinion of that message and therefore the brand will decline.  Now when I see Obama on TV making a speech or holding a press conference I wonder what else can he be using his time for?  He and his administration like everyone else face a scarce amount of time & resources and must allocate them appropriately.

Let's consider one of the top brands out there - Apple.  Apple has had great TV commercials for years (1984, Mac vs. PC, iPod), however, you do not see them all the time.  In fact, the famous 1984 commercial only aired once.  You will notice that Steve Jobs, considered one of the best salesman and marketers out there, only makes a few public appearances a year.  He understands that his introduction of a new product will have far more impact if a lot of anticipation and attention is given to his speech.  I think far more attention was given to Steve Jobs recent iPad announcement than to any one Obama's speech (excluding the State of the Union possibly).  Steve Jobs/Apple use the press accordingly to help push its message.  They then utilize TV commercials and third parties to help cross-promote (ie, find our new magazine on the iPad).

Obama must communicate with the American public, it is key for his success and many initiatives, however, he must communicate correctly so that his message is heard and not drowned out by his many other messages.

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Comeback America - U.S.'s Financial Situation

>> Saturday, March 6, 2010

Comeback America: Turning the Country Around and Restoring Fiscal ResponsibilityI just finished reading Comeback America: Turning the Country Around and Restoring Fiscal Responsibility, by David M. Walker, President and CEO of the Pete G. Peterson Foundation.  David Walker spent 15 years working for the federal government.  As former Comptroller General of the U.S. he was responsible for auditing the federal government's consolidated financial statements and making sure Washington was accountable to the people who pay the bills.  His book carries a powerful message about the financial state of America.  Below are a few key points he makes:

Deficit
"The Clinton surplus melted away even faster than I could have imagined" under President Bush.  "We went from a $236 billion surplus in fiscal year 2000 to a deficit that was approaching $400 billion in fiscal 2003." (pg xiv)

"In 2007, the federal deficit stood at $161 billion, or 1.2 percent of our economy.  In 2008 it was $455 billion, or 3.2 percent.  In 2009, figuring in billions spent to pull our economy out of recessions and on various bailout efforts, the deficit rocketed to about $1.42 billion, 9.9 percent of our economy." (pg 15)

Taxes
"Right now, on average Americans pay about 21 percent of their income in federal taxes and another 10 percent to state and local governments.  By 2030, to pay our rising bills, that amount could be at least 45 percent - higher even than the average 42 percent most Europeans pay.  By 2040, it would be at least 53 percent and climbing." (pg 19)

"More than 40 percent of Americans pay no income taxes at all."  Many pay payroll taxes though (Social Security & Medicare).  "Obama's tax proposals would make the percentage of freeloaders even larger.  Under his changes, as many as half of all working Americans would pay only payroll taxes...paying no income tax at all." (pg 114)

Savings & Consumption
"In the late 1980s, we Americans saved an average of 7.3 percent of our disposable income.  But then came the stock boom of the 1990s and the housing boom of the decade that followed.  We felt rich, credit was easy to get - and we spent and spent.  Our personal savings rate plummeted to less than 2 percent in 2005.  By early 2007, at the height of the market bubble, the savings rate stood at an anemic 0.7 percent." (pg 74)

"Historically, consumer spending has accounted for 60 to 65 percent of our national activity.  But as the economy heated up, Americans went on a shopping spree, and consumer spending increased to 72 percent." (pg 129)

Health Care
"Over the past forty years health care costs have risen an average of 2.4 percent faster than the national economy has grown.  This increase is the primary reason that health care now represents approximately 17% of our economy, up from just 6.5 percent forty years ago."

Education
"America doesn't rank among the top twenty nations in the world in high-school-level math and science proficiency.  Our high school system does a poor job of teaching civic responsibility and personal financial literacy as well.  About one in three high school students fail to graduate..." (pg 137)

Military
"As of 2005, the average cost of keeping an American serviceman or, -woman in uniform was $114,000 a year.  To put this in perspective, median household income at the time was less than $50,000 per year." (pg 155)

Politics & Government
"Professional politicians...take office with very little experience in the practical pursuits of their constituents - manufacturing things, inventing things, transporting people and products, caring for the ill, and teaching young people." (pg 185)

"Since the end of WWII...U.S. senators have won reelection 75 percent of the time"  House members have won reelection 90 percent of the time. (pg 186)


While most of the book is devoted to points such as mentioned above, the title after all is "Comeback America" and he includes many suggestions for improving America with his focus on financial matters: reduce deficits, improve the tax code, raise taxes where needed, control health care spending, fund social security...He also offers other suggestions such as term limits, taking responsibility for our own health, becoming civically involved and controlling our personal spending/debt.

Overall it was an excellent book considering it was about budgets, the government and a scary future.  I was aware of many of the issues the U.S. is facing, but not so knowledgeable about the exact figures and just how much worse it is than I expected.  While I can't expect him to cover every subject I felt there were a few areas he could have discussed further.  For example, he talks about the cost of an American serviceman, but nothing is mentioned of our hundred thousand plus troops abroad (Germany, Japan, Korea, etc.) who are not currently fighting in Iraq/Afghanistan.  I didn't see any mention of reforming tax laws to encourage savings - currently interest rates are taxed as income, while long term capital gains are taxed at 15%.  There was no mention of the huge financial cost of illegal immigration, the war on drugs, medical fraud, wasted foreign aid and our nation's dependence on foreign oil.  He talks about reigning in spending at the Pentagon, but did not discuss massive waste throughout government.  He discussed governmental accountability, but could have gone much further.  Most governmental offices spend with total disregard for where the money comes from.  However, as he stated he was an accountant and approaches the situation based on the numbers.  Also, I don't recall him mentioning just how few Americans vote and the problems that can lead to (see prior post regarding voting and the great recession).

There is also website - www.comebackamericathebook.com with information including speeches, links, a documentary and national debt clock which is running at a very fast rate.

For further book recommendations including Start-Up Nation, The J-Curve, The World is Flat and books by authors such as Fareed Zakaria and Thomas Friedman visit Apellicon's book recommendation website.

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Skype for News Reporting

>> Friday, March 5, 2010

While watching ABC World News yesterday I noticed something different about the reporting for one segment.  The reporter instead of sitting next to the guest who was in Texas (I believe) or even having a camera crew taping him, conducted the interview over Skype.  While this isn't the first time I've seen Skype used on TV, it was used in a more prominent way and a sign of times to come.

Last week ABC News announced layoffs of 25% in its news division - explaining that it couldn't maintain its cost structure. Management also explained that its staff would have to be more jack of all trades, not just reading news, but writing news; not just reporting, but filming with a handheld camera.  The layoff announcements plus this prominent use of Skype is just a preview of what will come.  After all it is far cheaper to conduct an interview over Skype than have a camera crew or affiliate used. Not to mention the reporter doesn't need to fly halfway across the country, saving time and money.  Plus, it's easier for a guest to agree to a Skype interview as he or she doesn't even have to leave his/her home.

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Quote of the Week: Ken Blanchard

During my senior year of college I took a short two day intensive weekend leadership course from Ken Blanchard.  Ken Blanchard is a leadership and management guru and author of such books as The One Minute Manager and The Secret: What Great Leaders Know -- And Do.  Overall it was a good course, but what I remember most is what he said at the end.  The quote is what I recall as opposed to an exact quote as its been a few years: "when people are on their death bead, no one ever looks back and says - I wish I spent more time at the office, at my desk - they say they wish they spent more time with their wife or children or other family members..."

While there are a few people whose job is their life, for most people this is a great piece of advice to keep in mind.  I don't believe the message is to encourage people to not work hard, nor not to make a contribution, just remember in the end, it is only a job.  As many Americans will have 10+ jobs over the course of their career, one job perhaps becomes less important (well, maybe not during this economy, but you get the point).

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Amazon + Netflix

>> Thursday, March 4, 2010

Every few months a rumor pops up that Amazon will buy Netflix.  There are a some good reasons for this from the business side - but I wonder about from the customer's perspective.  Below are a few potential benefits.

1.  Better Movie Data:  Amazon owns IMDb (Internet Movie Database) which is a great resource for all movie related inquires, from films to actors to statistics.  Netflix also has plenty of movie information, but it pales in comparison to IMDb.  Combining IMBb's information with Netflix would in theory make a better integrated experience for movie fans searching for information.

2.  Better Recommendations: Netflix sponsored a million dollar contest to improve its recommendation engine:  if you liked X, you'll like Y.  I routinely use this Netflix feature and find it very helpful.  I've found a few good movies through it I never would have sought out on my own.  That said, it still has plenty of room for improvement.  I wonder if Netflix were able to take advantage of Amazon's DVD sales information what effect that would have...

3. Amazon Optimization: Amazon is the king of creating an easy to use online shopping/user experience.  If Amazon could apply some of its skill to Netflix that wouldn't be so bad.  Netflix's site is pretty good - from its browsing option to its Queue, however, it could be better.  They could improve their Queue for example - allowing more customization and adjustment.  Think about if a family, with different tastes share an account.

4.  Instant Viewing: Amazon has a large DVD business but has not been successful in online streaming video sales.  Perhaps a merger would shift their focus more towards offering online streaming thereby improving Netflix's current selection.  This is a complicated area, but it would be nice.

5. Cross Media:  To expand on #2, I don't see why recommendations have to only be confined to Movies/TV shows.  What about expanding to include other forms of media such as books?  Think about movie-tie in books.  Someone who read Shutter Island might be more inclined to want to watch Shutter Island, or vice versa (although that's kind of an obvious suggestion).  Not that it has to be the same title either.  For example, I read an excellent book Gang Leader for a Day: A Rogue Sociologist Takes to the Streets, which I believe would be popular with viewer's of HBO's program The Wire.

6.  Delivery: Netflix and Amazon are very quick and reliable with delivery.  I wonder if they could each just learn from one another a little more and possibly even combine some operations what effect that would have...

7. Cross Packaging: Amazon Prime + Netflix?  Occasional discount Netflix subscriptions being sold through Amazon?  Netflix on the next generation Kindle?  and who knows what else...

If you have any other ideas about the benefits of Amazon + Netflix please leave a comment.  Thanks

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Thoughts on Greece Situation

The Greek situation is front and center given its impact on the Euro and Europe. I'd like to share a few thoughts I have related to this situation after spending over a month in Crete last year. These are based on conversations with locals.

1. Bribes: Many routine things require a bribe in one form or another (it could just be a bottle of wine). Someone explained that since many workers are paid so low, they rely on bribes to supplement their income.

2. Education: I was told that about half of the countries' college students need to leave Greece to study. Many go to England, Scotland and the U.S. Overall, they thought the university education in Greece was inadequate.

3. Jobs: Once these educated students return home, they have a great deal of trouble finding an appropriate level of work based on their education.

3. Services: Services which people pay for are not always reliable - from transportation to the police. For example, I was told a story about a tourist whose bag was stolen and was totally ignored by the police.

Greece has many great things in its favor including incredibly nice people, a great climate and a history they are very proud of. However, when I hear how many college educated students have to leave, or how hard it is for people to get basic things done, that's obviously not a good sign. These are indications of greater problems which we are clearly seeing now.

Smashed ATM after 2008 Protests. Heraklion, Crete

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Companies I'm Impressed By: Charles Schwab

Unfortunately, much of my prior analysis has been on what's wrong with companies and governments, however, I also think its important to focus on companies which seem to do things right.  I can only speak for my personal experiences - but I have been impressed by the financial services firm Charles Schwab for years.

Website:  Their website is very reliable, I've only had a problem signing in once and only had a problem getting an accurate quotes two or three times.

Helpline: Whenever I call their helpline their brokers are also very knowledgeable and helpful.  I've never called and had to deal with an outsourced worker or someone who was reading off of a script.

Pricing:  There was a time when they charged a little more than other brokerages, but they have managed to keep reducing their prices, recently offering $8.95 trades which was the lowest around for a few days, until Fidelity came out with $7.95 trades.

Advisor:  I was even assigned a Schwab Adviser.  While I can't say I've ever met him, or he's really initiated contact, it's not something I was expecting, so I view it as a plus.  Also, when I did contact him he solved my problem.

Mutual Funds:  They have a huge selection of no-fee mutual funds to select from.

ETFs:  Schwab recently introduced a collection of their own ETFs which cost nothing to trade.  Even better, many of these ETFs are the cheapest out there.

Additional Products:  Given my prior good experiences I switched to the Schwab Visa Card - and it's also great.  It offers 2% back on every transaction, does not cheat me when I make international purchases (see prior post on intl travel finance) and deposits my cash back directly into my brokerage account.  Meanwhile some credit cards provide points, which have to be accumulated and can only be redeemed when you reach a certain value.

Is there room for improvement?  Of course.  For one example, I think it would be great if they added Morningstar features to their website.  At this point I have to use Morningstar separately which just creates extra work, duplication and additional expense.  I would also imagine that some people would like an iPhone app, which they currently lack.

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401k Problems

>> Wednesday, March 3, 2010

401k's are vital to many people's retirement, however, they often do not receive the attention they deserve.  These retirement plans are more and more important as they have been steadily replacing pensions for years.  Most people are not comfortable making investment decisions and until recent changes many users didn't even sign up for the plans.  Even when people use 401k's there are a few problems I have encountered:

1.  Conflict of Interest.  I worked for two blue chip corporations and both of their 401k plans left room for improvement.  The first company was a very large company with its own financial unit so it was able to offer many of its own funds in the 401k.  First, that strikes me as a conflict of interest.  Yes, one or two of their funds were probably cheaper than the norm to own, but I can't say their performance was stellar.  

2.  Limited Choices.  I was very disappointed to find how limited the options are in 401k plans.  I don't know why this is the case - maybe they are worried about confusing investors, but more likely it's cheaper to administer these plans.  However, given that my future retirement fund is stuck here I want to be able to invest appropriately - attempting to diversify and improve returns.

3.  Lack of Education.  We have virtually no personal financial education system in this country.  Maybe you learn how to balance a checkbook in High School or you take a business class or two, but regardless it is totally inadequate.  So, for our government and corporations to assume that people will invest their savings appropriately is kind of a joke.  First of all, many people don't even know how 401k's work and/or are unsure what to invest in, so they don't even invest.  Among those that invest, it is not uncommon for people to invest in their own company's stock which of course can be a recipe for disaster.  Yes, many of the retirement account companies offer tutorials, but if a person lacks basic financial knowledge, has not interest or is too busy, than it won't help much.


A new company I read about recently, BrightScope, rates retirement plans.  I think the concept is great, and it's a good step towards adding transparency to this vitally important area.  I can't say for sure how accurate and/or helpful this company is, but I hope it helps.


Lastly, for better or worse, many people leave their jobs often, so we do have the ability to roll-over our 401k's into IRA's, which will give us more investing options.  This is good for savvy investors, but might actually be a disservice to less savvy investors as some people even forgot about their 401k's when they leave their job or decide to cash out. 


While I have not read any books which focus specifically on 401k plans, I found Jack Bogle's Common Sense on Mutual Funds to be an excellent introductory guide.  John Bogle founded the Vanguard Group and he is an advocate for low cost index funds.  This book will help you learn more about mutual funds - from fees to what to look for in the management.  While it won't teach you everything you need to know about investing, it will make it a lot easier to learn more (if you want to).  Visit Apellicon's Investing section for more helpful investing books.

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Snacking Children = Obese Children

by Sanapura
According to this recent Reuters article, Kids are moving towards constantly snacking.  As children represent the future - this is a disaster:


-"U.S. children eat an average three snacks a day on top of three regular meals, a finding that could explain why the childhood obesity rate has risen to more than 16 percent, researchers said on Tuesday."
-"More than 27 percent of calories that American kids take in come from snacks"
-"Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, wrote a commentary calling for taxes on sugary drinks and junk food, zoning restrictions on fast-food outlets around schools and bans on advertising unhealthy food to children."


The first lady, Michelle Obama has become a vocal advocate on this matter:


-"Parents, educators and policymakers all hold responsibility for this, Michelle Obama told the School Nutrition Association conference in Washington on Monday. The administration has launched an initiative to tackle the issue by improving nutritional standards, getting food companies to voluntarily improve nutrition standards, help kids exercise more and educating parents."


I am happy to see she talks about all the parties involved in this problem:  
Parents:  When many parents are overweight and have bad habits it is very hard to expect they will teach their children to eat healthy. 
Educators:  Based on my experiences and all I have read, health education in most schools is totally lacking.  
Policymakers:  While there is talk of sugar or unhealthy tax it is unlikely - consider the power of the food industry and how ingrained soda, snacks and many other unhealthy foods are in our society.  Even then, where do the taxes stop, after all you don't need to eat sweats to become heavy.  Will there be an inactivity tax?  What is possible to regulate?
Companies: A lifelong customer is the holy grail of marketing.  The earlier on a child sets his/her habits, the more profits the companies stand to make.  Packaged and processed foods have a much higher profit margin than fresh/healthy snacks which food companies can not control.


However, not all hope is lost.  Consider the success of anti-smoking initiatives including taxes, education and cultural changes.  Smoking rates are at an all time low in America at 20%, still too high, but the tide has turned.  Smoking is banned in restaurants, smokers are forced to stand outside in the cold and the sentiment about smoking has shifted.  Similar strategies need to be employed for the obesity epidemic.  It requires a huge integrated approach with a specific focus on culture change.  Below is one good example: celebrity chef Jaime Oliver offers an impassioned plea to stop the growing obesity epidemic. He provides context to the situation, discusses the many risks, offers suggestions and asks for help.  (For more information on improving your health visit Sanapura's Health Guide)




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U.S. Post Office

The U.S. Post Office lost $3.8 billion in its latest fiscal year and is forecast to lose $7.8 billion in 2010.  The USPS is even considering ending mail delivery on Saturday (article).  While many people correctly point to the increased usage of email as a cause of the Post Office's decline, not enough attention is given to just how inefficient the Post Office is run.  Nearly all of my personal experiences with the Post Office have not been impressive to say the least.  My experiences range from me feeling like I was in a third world country to once utter disbelief someone could do his job so slowly.

-The Post Office where I used to live always had an extremely long line, with maybe 2-3 people working at the window.  When you managed to get to the window I never saw any indication of them attempting to increase their speed to help more customers.  What was fortunate was that there was one electronic postage machine which I could use to weigh and print postage.  Even then the line was long for this machine and sometimes I think it was slower to use than to go with someone behind the window.
-Another time I requested my mail be held at the Post Office while I was away on vacation.  I went to the Post Office, waited on a long line, and approached the pick-up window.  The man behind the window asked for my address, disappeared for what must have been five minutes, only to return and ask for it again.  I had even tried to give it to him on paper the first time.  By now the line was extremely long and he returned to say he couldn't find it.  I asked him what could be done next, he looked puzzled and gave me the postman's cell phone.  Two days later, my mail, with a note reading "hold for pickup" was delivered.
-A few years ago I went during lunch to the Post Office for an official document.  I was thrilled to see there was only 1 person in front of me.  Sadly, what was mainly comprised of giving me a stamp took at least five minutes.  It was so slow I really could not believe it.

Now, these are hardly not all of my experiences with the post office, they are just a few examples.  Their mail service is generally very reliable, but the experiences I mentioned makes me wonder.  I understand the Post Office is a governmental agency in one form or another, but that does not mean they do not need to provide appropriate levels of customer service.  Some might argue, that some employees are not paid well (not necessarily true if you consider the economy and their benefits), so what do you expect.  However, fast food workers are not paid well, and if they can't stay up to speed I don't imagine they'll be around too long.  Furthermore, what ever happened to customer service and some sense of pride in your job (read my earlier post on customer service).  Economic times are not good - it's unreasonable for the Post Office to be losing billions of dollars a year and not make necessary improvements in how it is run.

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Travel Mindset

>> Tuesday, March 2, 2010

A wise person once told me that you can tell the difference between people who have traveled and those who have not.  The ones who have traveled extensively tend to have experienced more and have a more open mind.  While this seems to make sense, I wonder, do you have to travel to have a travel mindset?  For example, what happens if someone can't afford to travel internationally, or has family obligations or is physically unable to?  However, that same person might have an open mind, be open to new experiences and goes out of his/her way to try and duplicate these experiences.  True, reading about Paris is not the same as going to Paris, but what does physically stepping foot in Paris equate to anyway?  For example, if someone takes a very structured tour, is only exposed to tourist sights and never meets any locals, what has this person experienced?  If a traveler only views the world from his vantage point, never seeks to adapt to the local culture nor even try to understand it, what does that indicate?

For example, Sarah Palin was criticized for not travelling abroad for which she offered some of the above explanations (financial, work, etc.).  If that's the case that's understandable.  However, the real criticism might be that she didn't have the travel mindset, even though she was unable to physically travel.

So, the real question might be, what is the travel mindset, and how can people apply it to their everyday lives.  A few thoughts pop into my head.
Interest - You travel somewhere, you read about, study a subject or make an effort to do something because you have an interest in people, culture, history, etc.
Open Mind - You keep an open mind, you are not so quick to judge or try and force your values on a situation.
Flexible - Sometimes things don't always go so well when travelling, whether it's language or cultural mistakes or just getting lost.  The same could be said of everyday life.
Try Something New - Even with an interest and an open mind that doesn't guarantee you'll experience something.  Maybe you'll spend more time dreaming than doing.

Most of these points seem possible to have and/or enact in everyday life.  So, does the experience of travelling shape the person - or does the person's mindset shape their experiences.  Probably a bit of both.

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VAT impact on Roth IRA

Given that tax time is approaching quickly I've read a good deal of articles about the benefits of converting to a Roth IRA from an existing IRA for the upcoming tax year.  To try and keep this simple: laws have changed and now more people can pay taxes on their IRA now, convert it to a Roth IRA and not have to pay taxes when they withdraw the money in the future.  Many advisors recommend this option for their clients as the expectation is that taxes are only supposed to increase in the future.  Others hold a different viewpoint in that it's difficult to predict the future and why pay taxes now when you don't have to.

For example, just yesterday, I just saw two mentions of a potential VAT (value added tax).  While some say it won't happen, others say we have no choice.  A VAT, which is used in most other developed countries has the potential to transform our tax system.  For example a VAT could change/even replace many of our tax laws include our income tax rates.  One question though becomes what happens with some of these far planning conversions.  Does a person pay taxes to convert their IRA now in hopes of avoiding future taxes, to only end up paying VAT on most purchases later?  That does not seem fair, but unfortunately fair does not always apply to our society, let alone our tax system.  This is a tricky subject left to experts, but even they can't predict the future.  The U.S. is saddled with debt, the tax code is a mess and new revenue needs to be generated.

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Austin (Texas) - Trendspotting

>> Monday, March 1, 2010

I'm trying to do a better job of keeping an eye out for trends as well as connect the dots with so much information out there.  Last week I noticed three interesting articles about Austin, Texas.  Although I have not been to Austin, I have heard generally positive things. What is interesting about these stories is not so much what they solely indicate about Austin, but also about shifting trends in the United States.  There is not doubt that California, our nation's largest state and New York State, home to our nation's largest city both face a wide range of problems (not that they are the only states).  Even the great growth story of Florida has come to halt.  Meanwhile, Texas seems to be on the rise; The Economist actually published a very good special section about Texas in July.  Overall, the outlook was positive.  By the way, while California and NY both have state taxes above 10%, Texas has no state income tax.


Austin ranked #1 for the top Cities for Job Growth, 2010.  The report was by the Milken Institute:


"1. Austin-Round Rock, Texas (pop. 1,653,000) 
Last year's rank: 4   Job growth: 0.32%
Due to its well-prepared grads of top research institutions and its entrepreneurial spirit as evidenced by the high rate of self-employed workers, Austin has been cooking up a hot economy in recent years. It has been recruiting a lot of technology companies, due to low business costs in the area. Plus, Austin is positioning itself well in the clean tech industry, giving it an excellent outlook for the foreseeable future." 



Austin ranked #5 for Top Cities for retirement.  This report is by Retirement Weekly/Marketwatch.com
"5. Austin, Texas. Austin is becoming a popular retirement community for a variety of reasons, according to TopRetirements.com. The University of Texas and its array of cultural and other activities is perhaps the biggest draw for Austin; its cosmopolitan and high-tech, quirky soul is another reason. Plus, it has a relatively low cost of living, said Brady. On the downside, the summers are hot and humid and the city might be too big and fast-paced for those seeking peace and quiet."
Texas offers Facebook $1.4 million to woo Facebook office.  
"The state of Texas is offering Facebook Inc. $1.4 million from a business development fund to locate a new 200-employee sales and operations office in Austin.  Austin is one of several cities Facebook is considering for the office, which would be the social networking giant's first major office expansion outside of its headquarters in Palo Alto. Facebook has not revealed other cities in the running, but noted Austin offers a deep pool of technology workers."


While Austin is not one of the largest cities in the U.S. (it's #15) and it's job growth is not astronomical, it is actually growing - and people go where the jobs are.  Furthermore, attracting retirees and companies is good for numerous reasons - for one, both pay taxes and yet do not have children in school.  As for Texas, it has three of the top ten largest cities in America (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas). Click here for full list.

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Undercover Boss

CBS debuted its new program "Undercover Boss" after the Super Bowl a few weeks ago. I've had a chance to watch a few episodes and would like to make a few points.  But first, for those who aren't familiar with the program:  Each week the CEO or President or other top executive of a brand name company (Waste Management, Hooter's, 7 Eleven, White Castle) goes undercover as a new employee at a few locations.  He is given (so far it's been all men) low level jobs such as picking up trash, or cleaning dishes.  The Boss comes to realize a few things each week including:  how hard these jobs are, how his decisions impact the front lines and the many challenges some of these people face in terms of their health, family, etc. 


I think the concept of a business executive going undercover is a great idea and there is no better time than now.  Plus, the show humanizes CEOs who are often depicted as greedy heartless executives -some of them are, some are not and do great things for their company and communities.

Management
It shouldn't take a TV program for a boss to go out in the field and meet with his employees.  While going undercover is not the same as going out in the field he should at least do that.  The fact that many CEOs are so detached definitely raises some questions.  For those who haven't read the popular management book In Search of Excellence: Lessons from America's Best-Run Companies, one of the CEOs used to go visit the warehouses and plants at night, speak with the employees.  At one point he learned they wanted a shower so had one installed.  Meanwhile our former Car Czar, Steven Rattner wrote an article for Fortune about how the executives of GM were isolated in their ivory towers with their own private elevators.  

From a personal experience I remember when my the department I worked in (about 100 people) got a hot shot executive from the parent company to be SVP.  This executive, not even a CEO or COO or President never even met with the department.  But what was more surprising, she never even sent out an email.  People actually mentioned this to HR at which point she made some feeble attempts to be involved (but still no meetings nor emails).  She was eventually "promoted" back to headquarters.  As a contrast, at another firm a  new SVP set up small group breakfasts with all the members of the department over a the course of a few weeks.  Everyone understands that executives are busy, but if they don't focus on one of the most important, if not the most important asset they have, how successful will he or she be?

Production Values
The show is a pretty good program but there could be improvements.  First, they need to stop showing so much preview content at the beginning of the program, just air the program. If it's a good enough show, people will stick around and they'll appreciate that they haven't seen everything ahead of time.  Furthermore, as soon as they air the two minutes of clips, they immediately jump to a commercial.  Secondly, they need to dial down the cliches and the pumped up sentimentality.  There are a few times when they just go way overboard such as when a mentally challenged customer came outside to read a poem about her garbage person... Finally, it's too scripted, but that's not a total shock as it's reality TV.  Watching this program after the far better produced Amazing Race (16 seasons and still going) further highlights the differences even more.

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European Energy Savings Observations

>> Sunday, February 28, 2010

Every few days I read an article about broad energy/environmental initiatives which are planned in the U.S. ranging from greater fuel standards to utilizing nuclear power.  These are important topics to be explored, but we shouldn't forgot about the "little things" which can be done as well.  As an example, I'd like to highlight a few consumer habits I noticed in Austria in specific while spending time there.  While some will argue it's hard to compare a nation of 8 million to one of 300 million (I wouldn't disagree) that's not an excuse for not enacting improvements.

-Supermarkets charge for shopping bags in order to encourage people to bring their own bags.  The fee is minor so if you forget your bag it's no big deal, but it does encourage behavior change.  Shopping bags create a lot of trash in landfills, don't bio-degrate for who knows how long and require petroleum to be produced. Mayor Bloomberg had brought up the topic for NYC, however, it was met with hostility by some as there was concern it would affect businesses.  Whole Foods at one point offered a discount if you brought your own bag.  I believe they changed their tactics towards selling and providing (if you spend enough) disposable bags.

-Many toilets have two flush strength options which can save a significant amount of water and money over the course of a year.

-Clothes dryers are not popular, largely because they consume a lot of energy.  

-I saw many more movement activated light sensors which are designed to save electricity.  Also, in some hotel rooms in Europe you need your room card key to activate the room's electricity.  More U.S. hotels have been experimenting and/or are considering this option, however, it becomes challenging as people don't want their rooms to become too hot if they A/C is automatically turned off.

-Air Conditioning is used far more sparsely.  In America, air-conditioning is everywhere.  What is even worse though is that the A/C is often turned on so high that it wastes a tremendous amount of energy. Furthermore many stores even leave their doors open to encourage shoppers - such a waste. 

-On the flip side - many areas, such as a train station, are not even heated.  While this may or may not be the result of the station being old, it is indicative of a greater effort to conserve energy.

-The difference between the size of cars of average is huge.  It's not too common to see the giant SUVs or Pick-up trucks you do here.  Even the basic family cars are smaller. 

-Manual car transmissions are the norm as they save gas. According to recent Consumer Reports test, they found that "a stick shift can improve gas mileage by a notable 2 to 5 mpg compared with automatic transmission."

-Superior mass transit system.  It's hard to make apples to apples comparisons, but nonetheless, there is more emphasis on mass transit.  In many parts of the U.S. mass transit is inadequate at best, encouraging people to rely on less efficient transportation.

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Priorities: Sports Stadiums vs. Mass Transit Stations

>> Saturday, February 27, 2010

Last week I drove past Citi Field - the Met's new $850 million dollar stadium.  That same week I read about the next plan to transform NYC's Farley Post office into a new mass transit hub.  Politicians have been trying to upgrade Penn Station and/or combine it with the giant post office on 9th Avenue for many years, however, no progress has been made.  Just as when Thomas Friedman describes his trip from Zurich Airport to JFK as a trip from the Jetsons to the Flintstones, the comparison of sports stadiums vs. mass transit stadiums provides some powerful insight into our priorities.

The original Penn Station was (see pics to the left) was designed by the famous architects McKim, Meade and White and it was destroyed in 1963 to make way for Madison Square Garden and the underground Penn Station.  Although renovated in the last few years, it is still an awful station at best - nothing close to Grand Central Station. When you compare Penn Station to Berlin's new Hauptbahnhof (Central Train Station) you can't help yourself from laughing.  What is even more concerning is that Penn Station is in much better shape than countless subway stations and other mass transit infrastructure such as bridges (just look at the rust on some of them).

True, the Germans love their trains and clean efficient mass transit, but NYC has a new Mets Stadium, Yankee Stadium, a new Meadowlands Stadium on the way and a plan for a new Nets stadium in Brooklyn.  The Mets stadium as I mentioned cost $850 million to construct and the new Yankee Stadium cost $1.5 billion - making it the most expensive stadium ever built in the United States.  While the numbers very depending on the source I read both ball teams received hundreds of millions in tax-exempt bonds.  There is no denying that building and maintaining these stadiums create many jobs and these baseball teams pay millions in taxes to the city each year.  However, you must wonder if this is the best use of our tax dollars.  I wonder how many jobs improving the NYC's infrastructure would create, how many more businesses might locate in NYC if there was improved transportation as well as additional tax incentives.  USA Today has a good in-depth analysis of how much the stadiums will really cost NYC, which you can read here.  Below are a few highlights:


"The Yankees have received a total of $1.2 billion in tax-exempt bonds and $136 million in taxable bonds; the Mets got $697 million in tax-free bonds....The city's Independent Budget Office, a publicly funded agency that provides non-partisan information about financial issues, estimated the Yankees deal will cost the city $362 million, the Mets' agreement $138 million. Savings to the teams: $787 million over 40 years for the Yankees, $513 million for the Mets."


"Other estimates vary, as figures in the complex deals are interpreted differently. New York State Assemblyman Richard L. Brodsky, D-Westchester, the most vocal critic of the deals, says the taxpayers' tab for Yankee Stadium eventually will total $4 billion. (He includes potential property tax revenue over 40 years given up in the deal, although stadium advocates argue the teams weren't paying property tax at their old stadiums.) "I don't know what you think about bank bailouts, but the public is spending $4 billion to build Yankee Stadium, at a time we can't fund the (subway system) and schools," he says, adding the deals are a misuse of a financing tool called PILOTS (payment in lieu of taxes)."


Plus, I can not forget to mention that Citi (pre-recession) agreed to pay $20 million over 20 years for naming rights to the new stadium.  Citi as we all know later received billions of dollars in government TARP bailout money.

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