European Energy Savings Observations

>> Sunday, February 28, 2010

Every few days I read an article about broad energy/environmental initiatives which are planned in the U.S. ranging from greater fuel standards to utilizing nuclear power.  These are important topics to be explored, but we shouldn't forgot about the "little things" which can be done as well.  As an example, I'd like to highlight a few consumer habits I noticed in Austria in specific while spending time there.  While some will argue it's hard to compare a nation of 8 million to one of 300 million (I wouldn't disagree) that's not an excuse for not enacting improvements.

-Supermarkets charge for shopping bags in order to encourage people to bring their own bags.  The fee is minor so if you forget your bag it's no big deal, but it does encourage behavior change.  Shopping bags create a lot of trash in landfills, don't bio-degrate for who knows how long and require petroleum to be produced. Mayor Bloomberg had brought up the topic for NYC, however, it was met with hostility by some as there was concern it would affect businesses.  Whole Foods at one point offered a discount if you brought your own bag.  I believe they changed their tactics towards selling and providing (if you spend enough) disposable bags.

-Many toilets have two flush strength options which can save a significant amount of water and money over the course of a year.

-Clothes dryers are not popular, largely because they consume a lot of energy.  

-I saw many more movement activated light sensors which are designed to save electricity.  Also, in some hotel rooms in Europe you need your room card key to activate the room's electricity.  More U.S. hotels have been experimenting and/or are considering this option, however, it becomes challenging as people don't want their rooms to become too hot if they A/C is automatically turned off.

-Air Conditioning is used far more sparsely.  In America, air-conditioning is everywhere.  What is even worse though is that the A/C is often turned on so high that it wastes a tremendous amount of energy. Furthermore many stores even leave their doors open to encourage shoppers - such a waste. 

-On the flip side - many areas, such as a train station, are not even heated.  While this may or may not be the result of the station being old, it is indicative of a greater effort to conserve energy.

-The difference between the size of cars of average is huge.  It's not too common to see the giant SUVs or Pick-up trucks you do here.  Even the basic family cars are smaller. 

-Manual car transmissions are the norm as they save gas. According to recent Consumer Reports test, they found that "a stick shift can improve gas mileage by a notable 2 to 5 mpg compared with automatic transmission."

-Superior mass transit system.  It's hard to make apples to apples comparisons, but nonetheless, there is more emphasis on mass transit.  In many parts of the U.S. mass transit is inadequate at best, encouraging people to rely on less efficient transportation.

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Priorities: Sports Stadiums vs. Mass Transit Stations

>> Saturday, February 27, 2010

Last week I drove past Citi Field - the Met's new $850 million dollar stadium.  That same week I read about the next plan to transform NYC's Farley Post office into a new mass transit hub.  Politicians have been trying to upgrade Penn Station and/or combine it with the giant post office on 9th Avenue for many years, however, no progress has been made.  Just as when Thomas Friedman describes his trip from Zurich Airport to JFK as a trip from the Jetsons to the Flintstones, the comparison of sports stadiums vs. mass transit stadiums provides some powerful insight into our priorities.

The original Penn Station was (see pics to the left) was designed by the famous architects McKim, Meade and White and it was destroyed in 1963 to make way for Madison Square Garden and the underground Penn Station.  Although renovated in the last few years, it is still an awful station at best - nothing close to Grand Central Station. When you compare Penn Station to Berlin's new Hauptbahnhof (Central Train Station) you can't help yourself from laughing.  What is even more concerning is that Penn Station is in much better shape than countless subway stations and other mass transit infrastructure such as bridges (just look at the rust on some of them).

True, the Germans love their trains and clean efficient mass transit, but NYC has a new Mets Stadium, Yankee Stadium, a new Meadowlands Stadium on the way and a plan for a new Nets stadium in Brooklyn.  The Mets stadium as I mentioned cost $850 million to construct and the new Yankee Stadium cost $1.5 billion - making it the most expensive stadium ever built in the United States.  While the numbers very depending on the source I read both ball teams received hundreds of millions in tax-exempt bonds.  There is no denying that building and maintaining these stadiums create many jobs and these baseball teams pay millions in taxes to the city each year.  However, you must wonder if this is the best use of our tax dollars.  I wonder how many jobs improving the NYC's infrastructure would create, how many more businesses might locate in NYC if there was improved transportation as well as additional tax incentives.  USA Today has a good in-depth analysis of how much the stadiums will really cost NYC, which you can read here.  Below are a few highlights:


"The Yankees have received a total of $1.2 billion in tax-exempt bonds and $136 million in taxable bonds; the Mets got $697 million in tax-free bonds....The city's Independent Budget Office, a publicly funded agency that provides non-partisan information about financial issues, estimated the Yankees deal will cost the city $362 million, the Mets' agreement $138 million. Savings to the teams: $787 million over 40 years for the Yankees, $513 million for the Mets."


"Other estimates vary, as figures in the complex deals are interpreted differently. New York State Assemblyman Richard L. Brodsky, D-Westchester, the most vocal critic of the deals, says the taxpayers' tab for Yankee Stadium eventually will total $4 billion. (He includes potential property tax revenue over 40 years given up in the deal, although stadium advocates argue the teams weren't paying property tax at their old stadiums.) "I don't know what you think about bank bailouts, but the public is spending $4 billion to build Yankee Stadium, at a time we can't fund the (subway system) and schools," he says, adding the deals are a misuse of a financing tool called PILOTS (payment in lieu of taxes)."


Plus, I can not forget to mention that Citi (pre-recession) agreed to pay $20 million over 20 years for naming rights to the new stadium.  Citi as we all know later received billions of dollars in government TARP bailout money.

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Great Recession Responsibilities

>> Friday, February 26, 2010

There is no lack of blame to go around for the Great Recession - there are countless culpable parties from Wall Street, to mortgage lenders, to the government to the home owner's who bought houses they couldn't afford, to the ratings agencies and to investors who bought toxic assets they didn't understand.  There is one group who I have at least not heard being assigned blame and that is 50.7% of Americans, 62 million people, who voted for George Bush in the 2004 election as well as the 45% of eligible voters who didn't even vote.

The Bush administration is blamed constantly for our current fiscal crisis and it deserves this reaction of course.  However, we must not forget that Bush was elected - twice.  I highlight the 2004 election because in 2000 many people admit they made mistakes.  However, for the 2004 election everyone knew what they would get.  Everyday on the news I read or see outraged Americans, railing against our socialist government.  While some outrage might be justified, I do not recall such outrage when Bush was in office.

If we think about it, it is far easier to blame everyone - especially "evil" CEOs and Wall Streeters than it is to accept responsibility.  While some might argue that a different administration might not have led to a different outcome, that seems a little unlikely if we just do a quick tally of all the incompetence that occurred in the Bush administration - from the handling of the Iraq War to Katrina to the budget deficit sums it up.  After all Bush made home ownership a central theme of his agenda.  While home ownership is an admirable goal, as we have learned it is not for everyone.  However, at the end of the day, it is far easier for the news media or politicians to blame Wall Street than it is to assign a little blame to a majority of the population.  The media and individuals would benefit though by reiterating the importance of voting and voting for the best candidate as our government can have a significant impact on our lives.

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CNBC Programming Changes

>> Thursday, February 25, 2010

For the last two weeks during the Olympics CNBC has moved Fast Money and Mad Money to CNBC World in order to make room for Olympic programs.  To help keep viewers engaged CNBC has aired Mad Money High Noon from 12p-12:30p and Fast Money from 12:30p-1p.  CNBC plans to stop airing these programs tomorrow and return to its normal schedule.  I am not familiar with these two program's ratings, however, from a viewer standpoint they are vastly superior to what CNBC airs during Power Lunch.  CNBC morning program is top notch in the morning including Squawk Box and Squawk on the Street.  However, once 11am starts, there is not really any engaging programming to watch and CNBC becomes background TV.  The hour long Mad Money and Fast Money are both very good programs.

On Mad Money, Cramer tones down his antics, has some great interviews with CEOs and provides some excellent analysis.  Meanwhile Fast Money airs during the trading day and fits nicely into a half hour block.  Sometimes the hour long Fast Money can be too much except for the die-hard trader.

Power Lunch is not what it used to be: Griffin is gone, Dennis Kneale according to what I read on the internet is hated, and the program is often silly.  Please consider keeping MM & FM on at noon.

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Investing - Salesforce.com (CRM)

I bought the stock of Salesforce.com (CRM) last week and so far it has been doing well.  Without launching into a detailed analysis of all the reasons behind my purchase I would like to share a few big picture non-financial highlights:

1.  Background
Behind the Cloud: The Untold Story of How Salesforce.com Went from Idea to Billion-Dollar Company-and Revolutionized an IndustryI read the CEO and founder, Marc Benioff's book Behind the Cloud: The Untold Story of How Salesforce.com Went from Idea to Billion-Dollar Company-and Revolutionized an Industry.  Overall I was very impressed with him and the company.  His prior track record at Salesforce has been strong, I agree with his approach to hiring (hire the best, reward them well) and he is an innovator in a growing field. I have in the past read books about company's/CEO's such as Steve Jobs from Apple, Howard Schultz from Starbucks and about Google, yet not taken any action only to watch their stocks zoom up.  Reading a book is hardly reason to invest, but a few hundred pages of reading offers some valuable insight.

2.  Trends
Cloud computing, where data is not stored on your hard drive, but in "the cloud" where you can access it anywhere is only in its infancy.  Google, Amazon, Apple and many more top tier firms are betting on cloud computing.  Google Docs is a perfect example of cloud computing - you can save your document online, collaborate with multiple people and access it anywhere.  The rapid increase in mobile computing will only further accelerate the need for cloud computing.

3.  Innovation/SaaS
Benioff envisioned Salesforce as a CRM software such as Oracle, but with the ease of Amazon.  He would eliminate the very expensive installations and provide Salesforce.com as Software as a Service (SaaS) - where customers would pay monthly subscriptions to access it over the internet.  Additionally, one of his execs talks wrote a book about Facebook marketing and mentions many of the initiatives Salesforce has launched to be aggressive in social media.  The book is The Facebook Era: Tapping Online Social Networks to Build Better Products, Reach New Audiences, and Sell More Stuff by Clara Shih.  Innovation is key in the tech business and business in general and Salesforce.com has been a great innovator.

4.  Human Capital
Fortune Magazine named Salesforce.com as one of its best 100 Companies to work for; click here, for the article.  Salesforce is also #2 on the list for best pay with $249,607 average pay.  Salesforce rewards its employees, especially its sales force for top performance.  In his book he talks about some of the perks some of his best salespeople have receive - such as a trip to Hawaii.  Also, if you look on Salesforce's website they are hiring for numerous positions.  If you examine some of the positions, you will note they have high standards.

5.  James Stewart
Stewart who is an astute investor recommended Salesforce recently.  He good point he mentions "what's more important to a business during - or just after- a recession than generating sales? Salesforce.com uses technology to help businesses operate more effectively, and it's been surging through the recession."

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Poor Customer Service - Follow Up

>> Wednesday, February 24, 2010

As a perfect follow up to today's post I read famed restaurant owner Danny Meyer is launching "Hospitality Quotient, which is an "education and consulting business that will teach companies across all industries, from banking to health care, how to improve their customer service (Crain's)."  You can read the full article here.  He is an astute businessman and certainly recognizes there is a huge potential for companies to improve their customer service.

Setting the Table: The Transforming Power of Hospitality in BusinessMeyer also wrote the excellent book Setting the Table: The Transforming Power of Hospitality in Business, which is an autobiography focused on his restaurant business.  The title alone sums up his approach to business - 'hospitality' is notably front and center while the word 'restaurant' is absent.  According to the article, this new business is an extension of and a result of the success of the book.  At the center of his beliefs is the importance of providing outstanding hospitality to his guests and treating his staff very well.  After all, he believes you can not have one without the other.  Meyer wrote in his book that he often calls guests to thank them for his service.  He also launched a feedback program way before anyone else to make sure his customers were satisfied.  While I haven't been to any of his restaurants I have heard good things.  I can however, definitely recommend the book.

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Poor Customer Service

On average, of course excluding certain companies and people, customer service is on the decline.  Stop for one minute to think of all the times a waiter was rude, or someone at the store was less than helpful or a salesperson couldn't care less what you were even saying.  Now think of all the times something went wrong due to incompetence. Some companies do apparently take notice but only after things get so bad.  My doctor's office was the epicenter of poor customer service.  I never expected something to be done right and unfortunately nothing ever was.  However, my last two visits to the office have been like a visit to a different planet.  The employees there are like the women of the "Stepford Wives."  They are extraordinarily polite - to the point where is is scary.  They jump to sign you in or tell you when it's your turn, etc... While it should have never gotten to this situation, one must wonder, what causes such poor customer service?

There are countless reasons:
1.  Automation
When people are replaced with automated systems where you have to enter a series of 1's and 3's on your phone, you can not expect the same results as when you speak with a person.

2. Outsourcing
I have usually found outsourced phone operators to be very polite, but usually lacking in solving my problem in a time efficient manner.  They sound as if they have memorized a script, which of course they have, and for the most part act like robots.  While this is more than adequate customer service for a basic inquiry for a problem or issue, it often falls short.  I would be curious to learn how companies/call centers segment and route their calls.

3. Rudeness
It seems to me more and more people are just plain rude.  It's hard to say if they just don't like their job, are resentful or are naturally like that.  What's also at fault is a bad cycle, where employees are treated poorly at work (by their boss, co-workers, or customers) and therefore have no reason to treat other people well.  Sometimes there is no good explanation - just take a visit to Yelp to read about countless waiter/waitress horror stories.  This is doubly concerning as they should be operating on tips, which brings me to my next point.

4. Compensation
The days of people making a long term career of a job are in decline.  Many people will have countless jobs and different roles over their careers.  If someone's long term success is not really tied to this role, their attitude and performance is not as important.  For many people, their compensation is fixed, there is not incentive to provide good let alone superior service.

5. Lack of Pride in Work
CBS's new program "Undercover Boss" is about CEOs of huge companies who go undercover to work with people at the "lowest level" of their company.  For example, the CEO of Waste Management, worked with someone who cleans toilets all day.  Despite having an unglamorous role, this employee took pride in what he did and approached work with a great attitude.  Unfortunately, he is not the norm.  When people lose pride in their work can we really expect them to provide a good level of service.  One unscientific example:  while travelling in the Japan Subway system heading above ground, I saw a cleaning lady working extremely hard to make sure that the staircase handle was spotless.  That did not surprise me that much having been there already for a few days, but the look on her face did.  She seemed to take pride in her work.  I witnessed a similar example with gardeners in a nearby park.  I would like to contrast this with an incident of a NYC subway booth operating practically yelling at tourists who had done nothing wrong.  Not an apples, to apples comparison, but something to consider.

6. Competence
The saying that "it's hard to find good people" is as trues as it ever was, despite the recession.  Education is an important factor for competence, and although the U.S. leads the world in world class universities, our pre-university education is lacking.  Furthermore, many companies also do not have proper training methods in place to insure employees even know what they are doing.  People lack responsibility - manager's do not properly take responsibility for their employees and employees who are at fault are quick not to accept blame.

7. Cost Cutting
Finally, even if none of the above are factors, just the notion of the constant cost cutting and increased workload for many employees is bound to have an effect.  If someone is overworked, underpaid and overstressed, they will not provide the best service, it's just not possible.

What is considered good customer service?  Ritz Carlton is often considered the pinnacle of customer service.  While unfortunately I have not had the opportunity to stay at the Ritz Carlton, I did attend a lecture by an executive who was in charge of training employees how to provide superior service.  I will save this analysis for another time, because this post was about diagnosing the problem.

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Hiring Decisions

>> Tuesday, February 23, 2010

In this tough marketplace there are countless factors which contribute to one candidate being hired over another.    There is one area in particular I would like to examine further is the "cookie-cutter model," where some people/firms will only hire a candidate who has done the exact same role before with a pre-determined amount of experience and specific background.  Meanwhile other people/firms worry less about a person's exact background and focus more on the individual and often in particular their potential.

1.  Cookie-Cutter
There are pluses and minuses to this approach.  First, someone who has a great track record in a specific role would appear to be a smart hire.  The odds are good this is the end result, however, people always need to consider - will the person be able to be successful in this new role.  Much as in sales, you are only as good as your next sale.  A candidate might have been a great Salesperson - constantly exceeding quotas and always brining in new revenue.  However, does that person have the leadership skills to be a sales manager?  This is of course a complicated example, which can be examined in depth another time.  The cookie-cutter approach also applies strongly to education.  I have seen very talented candidates be passed over based on not meeting a specific academic pedigree.  Another important factor which is not considered is the team approach.  Often times the strongest teams are where the members have complimenting skills.  A numbers person balances out the creative individual, or the operations person is balanced with the strategy person.  If everyone has the same background there is no diversity, and that will probably not produce optimal results.

2.  The Individual
There are countless examples of people who might not have had perfect experience but were selected nonetheless.  One recent example is Barack Obama.  He was selected more on potential than on prior experience as he is pretty short on it (see the Obama, CEO post).  Time will tell how this works out, but it illustrates the case relatively well.  Google is well known for hiring people based on their intelligence and potential.  In many cases they are not as concerned with someone's exact background as what they can do in the future, although they do place a lot of emphasis on academic achievement and do prefer top-caliber schools.  The benefit of focusing on the individual is that you are looking towards the future in many senses.  First, you are hiring for the specific position you want to fill which as mentioned above might really require a different skill set (management vs. analysis for example).  Secondly, you are hiring an individual for the company just as much as for the team & department.  Great companies hire great people - and allow them to develop.  This does not always happen in a small segment.  Think of how GE develops leaders by moving them around to many different businesses.  Plus, as mentioned above, a smart person will learn things quickly, and if he/she has a different background could bring something valuable to the table.  For example, Mike Bloomberg as a very successful businessman brought his many strong skills to NYC government, even though he never held an elected office before.

Would you rather hire a C person with great relevant experience or an A person without as much relevant experience but who will be the better hire longer term.  There is no right answer of course, it always depends on the situation.  However, hiring mangers and firms often times fail to completely consider the whole picture.  Furthermore, few appropriately track and analyze their hiring decision.  I know of a manager how had multiple people leave when working for her (above the average churn level), an aborted 1 week hire and passed up people who went on to be very successful.  Maybe these were all coincidences or maybe there is something amiss with that hiring manager that should be examined further.  Companies are quick to list every single function of the job, but they should also include more information about their hiring strategy and approach.  Transparency, would better define how that manager/team operates as well.

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International Travel Finances

>> Sunday, February 21, 2010

Below are a few finance tips to keep in mind before you book your next international trip.

1.  Pay Attention to Currencies
I've actually been pretty surprised how unaware some international travellers are of currency exchange rates. I am not expecting everyone to be a Forex (foreign exchange) trader, but just as you pay attention to weather when picking your next destination you should pay attention to currencies as well - it can have a huge impact.  Take for example Japan the Japanese Yen.  Currently $1 U.S. dollar buys 91 Japanese Yen, however, two years ago the $1 dollar bought 120 Yen.  Take a look at the five year chart. That's a big difference.  Your trip to Japan will be significantly different when your currency is much stronger.  Now, I'm not suggesting to let the tail wag the dog and not go somewhere because of the currency, but just to pay attention - perhaps you'll find a bargain.  For another example, consider Iceland, whose Krona lost more than half of its value vs. the dollar in the financial crisis.

2. Keep an Eye on Fees
Just as at home different banks and credit card companies charge different fees, the same situation applies abroad.  Do some research before you go to see how much your credit card and bank charges.  The NY Times has a good article about "hidden fees."  "Chase, Citibank, and Bank of America all charge a 3% percent fee in most instances."  Meanwhile, Capital One and Schwab's Credit Card do not add on any additional fees.  Similarly for using a foreign ATM many banks can add on a few percent currency transaction fee.  These fees change so it's best to check with your bank before travelling abroad.  Citibank charges around 3%, while HSBC is much lower and has a far greater network of ATMs.  Depending how much you travel and how much you spend at some point it might be worth adding another card.  FlyerGuide has a helpful section for comparison purposes.

3. Flight Arbitrage
Travel search engines such as Kayak are great, and they are very helpful for finding the best price.  However, on more than one occasion I have noticed that there are big gaps between the price of a flight in dollars and the foreign currency price when I convert to dollars.  For example, I recently booked a flight using Austrian airlines.  On all the American websites I checked the price was above $800.  When I went directly to Austrian figured out the flight in Euro's and then multiplied by the exchange rate ($1.36 dollars to 1 Euro) it was $720.  Of course, maybe I was shown a different flight, so I then checked a few sites looking for the exact same flight and I found the same high price.  I'm not sure how many airlines this applies to, however it's good to be aware of.  So, next time you might book a foreign air carrier flight check the prices in its currency and convert it yourself.

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Education Inflation

>> Saturday, February 20, 2010

It feels like everyone I know is going back to school for a master's degree.  This is probably not a surprise given the state of the economy, but even if we exclude the recent crisis and look at the long term trends, we can see that more and more people are going to college and graduate school.  While on the face of it it appears great that so many people are attending college - this was one of Bush's many goals - it might not be such an absolutely great change.

It seems to me that we are undergoing education inflation.  Where many years ago a high school degree was good enough, now a college diploma seems to be a necessity for many jobs.  While college in theory offers added education and skills, this change ends up devaluing the High School degree.  The more people there are with college degrees out there, the less a H.S. degree is worth.  Plus, some high schools, end up not doing as good of a job, as they believe some of their weaker students can go onto college and improve more there.  The same holds true for master's degrees.  Many students go straight from undergrad for a master's in all sorts of subjects.  Once again, it adds education, but how much does it really help.  Do you really need an MBA for many of the jobs out there?  How many lawyers can our country have?

The main issue though for being aware of education inflation is debt.  Attending many colleges and graduate programs pile on so much debt students that some students have a hard time ever paying it off.  So who benefits from all this grade inflation?  The financial institutions which make the loans and of course the colleges.  Many universities use certain graduate programs such as business school to subsidize their other programs. Some people have even said that the high cost of education was a contributing factors for so many talented college graduates heading to Wall Street - they had to pay off their loans.

Additionally, look at the entry of Kaplan Test Prep into the college market.  Kaplan is a well run and successful company.  They are entering the college market not only because of the online opportunities, but because it is a profitable market.  Now, people will be able to get their second or third degree without ever stepping foot in a classroom.

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Obama, CEO

Obama has been President of the U.S. for over a year now and there are countless pundits commenting on every move he has made and analyzing what he has done wrong in utter detail.  Overall, he has done a good job as president, however, he has made a few key mistakes.

From a management perspective he made what can be considered one of the classic management blunders.  He took on more than could be accomplished with Healthcare, an area which has thwarted many before him, while letting his eye off of the ball in terms of the economy.  While Healthcare plays a vital role in the economy in many ways, he did not articulate how it tied in with the economy.

Many new managers as well as CEOs do not remember key lessons from economics, which in their case is the scarcity of their focus.  It is a reason many mergers and acquisitions fail - top management becomes too occupied with a new division or radical increase in their companies size that they are unable to focus on what has made them successful up to that point.  Obama, as was pointed out by his opponents, lacked management experience.  He did not run a city, as Guiliani proudly boasted, nor a State, as Romney mentioned, nor even the country as Hilary implied a few times.  While, it's hard to expect the President to magically create millions of jobs, at least the appearance of doing anything possible would have helped.  Instead, his administration expected unemployment to peak at around 8% instead of going past 10%.  Jobs, is where his focus should have been - or perhaps even better as Thomas Friedman argued, nation building, which would have not only included jobs but position America better for the future.

Obama was an extraordinarily accomplished campaigner - but he did promise more than he could deliver, which is a huge risk.  He promised change, a new way of operating and Washington and much more.  One year later, with countless Clinton nominee's in place, back room deals and a more dis-functional Congress than ever, we must question how much change he has brought.  While, this is no big surprise, it does damage his political capital, lowers his support from many Americans and limits what he can accomplish with Healthcare.  Even the best CEOs have made mistakes, so hopefully Obama can recover from them.

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The Greatest Trade Ever

The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial HistoryI am currently reading The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History by Gregory Zuckerman.  This is one of many books about the Great Recession, albeit a more focused on a specific group of traders who went on to profit from the collapse of real estate.

A few main points strike me most about this book.
1.  It was incredible how no one even thought real estate could go down.  The best and the brightest on Wall Street had incredibly complex models which never even accounted for a drop in housing.

2.  You have to be not only a contrarian to go against the crowd, but also have the conviction to stay the course.  John Paulson, who ran a Hedge Fund which made billions off of his trades was ridiculed, told he was flat out wrong and was often like a canary in the coal mine.  In fact, he invested nearly all of his money, $30 million in his fund, so convinced he was right.  He never wavered.

3.  There is no excuse for hard work.  Part of the success of these investors was the due diligence they conducted.  To call them traders, as if they suddenly one day decided to short the market is a misnomer.  In fact, Paulson and his team researched real estate and these investments for years.  The book does a great job of describing how his analyst poured over data and financial models night after night.

4.  All of the investors focused on in this book are described as outsiders - men who went against the norm and often followed their own paths.  The implication seems to be that only someone like this would have gone onto succeed.  If a person follows the crowd they would have assumed the good times would go on forever.

5.  Up to these 'great trades', most of these men at least by the standards of their industry were undistinguished and in many senses had something to prove.  From a historical perspective many of the most remembered/revered men of history fit in this bucket.  Lincoln failed countless times in his past before saving the nation.  Churchill was essentially exiled before being brought back to save Britain.

6. It has been my experience that journalists on average write the best non-fiction books.  The author is a Wall Street Journal writer, who keeps the pace going despite some complexities as CDS, ABX, CDOs, MBS and plenty more esoteric investments.  Next time you are looking for a book to read take a look at the author - if he's a writer for the WSJ, NY Times, Washington Post, New Yorker or other top notch newspaper or magazine the odds are in your favor.

Takeaways:  Following the crowd is easy, but if it's greatness you seek, don't expect it that way.  There's no excuse for hard work.  Finally, be very careful about underestimating people - keep an open mind and remember a few of them have history on their side.

For more book suggestions visit Apellicon's Book Recommendation website.  Great books in such categories as Business, Wall Street and Investing.

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